MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) -MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - It’s been feeling more like winter lately and the cold air is going to stick around. On top of that, there is a chance of wintry weather Monday night into early Tuesday.
Another shot of cold Canadian air will be ushered in Monday night, this will allow our temperatures to take another tumble, in fact, highs may not even get out of the 30s on Tuesday.
A cold front will be the culprit for more cold air and moisture will ride south out ahead of the front. This is where the wintry mix could come into play as we get a brief surge from the south of warm Gulf moisture, which will lead to rain as early as Sunday night.
A cold and wet scenario for Monday as the rain chances will last through Monday night and could coincide with the next shot of cold air which arrives Monday night. The question is, does the cold air line up with the moisture especially since the moisture will be exiting as the cold air arrives. Right now, it appears that there could be a brief changeover, the GFS is showing a short period of snow.
New data is still showing signs that the leading edge of the next round of Canadian air could catch up to the back edge of precipitation but appears only to be a brief which would mean little to no accumulation.
Check out the latest estimated snowfall accumulation from the GFS model.
Timing hasn’t changed as it would be Monday night into early Tuesday morning but models are trending drier.
The European forecast model is indication only a trace of snow mostly along and north of the I-40 corridor, the area where the coldest air and remaining moisture are most likely expected and the GFS forecast model is indicating a 10 of an inch or less in areas that do get a mix of snow.
Check out the estimated snow accumulation from the European Model.
For now, I think the most likely scenario is rain briefly changing to snow during the early morning hours of Tuesday and little to no accumulation, but we will continue to monitor this and see as new data comes in.