MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - Forecast models have really been going down in regards to snow chances and speeding up the timing, lets compare. Before we compare, lets talk about the overall trend of EURO, GFS, and RPM forecast models. They all have been backing off on the snow chances. The front is a day away so, I think they are getting a better handle and I do believe that this downward trend of snow is going in the right direction.
A few reasons why I buy the latest model data...
1. This is not the right set-up for significant snow across the Mid-South
2. The cold air may be lagging behind the moisture
3. There is not a ton of moisture with this system
4. The timing and speed of the front may limit accumulation.
Here is a look at the European model which has backed way down on its initial guidance. Initially it showed up to 4″ of snow right here in Memphis. It has been trending down everyday since and below is where it thinks the wintry weather will be now. The EURO takes the Mid-South out of any wintry weather altogether, we will see if this trend holds.
Another model that we use is the RPM. It has been backing off too. Yesterday it had the placement of the snow a bit farther north and west but today it keeps the snow in eastern northeast Mississippi and in Hardeman and McNairy counties in Tennessee.
The GFS shows a similar solution but does have a bit more snow for parts of North Mississippi.
Bottom line is it appears that the best chances will stay south and east of Memphis. There could still be some changes as the front draws closer. I think any changes we will see will be lowering accumulation and snow chances even more. Stay tuned. For now check out the winter weather advisory and prepare for much colder temperatures behind the front Tuesday!