MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - Six of the first ten days of February have seen above average temperatures, but Mother Nature is about to send us a sign that winter isn't over just yet.
We've enjoyed some rather mild temperatures so far this month and Wednesday promises to be another one of those days. Then get ready for another shot of cold air which will keep temperatures below average for the next several days.
High pressure will ridge into the area Wednesday in advance of an approaching cold front. High temperatures will reach the mid and upper fifties for much of the Mid-South. By midday a cold front will move through the area allowing another arctic air mass to filter into the area. The front brings no precipitation but it will be the leading edge of some of the coldest air we've seen since early January.
Temperatures Wednesday night will fall into the thirties and aren't expected to get out of the thirties during the day Thursday. Overnight lows Thursday night will dip into the teens. The cold air will remain through the day Friday and into Saturday with high temperatures only reaching the forties. Fortunately, there will be plenty of sunshine despite the cold temperatures.
Then Saturday another dry front will dig south with a Canadian high pressure system building in behind it once again bringing another shot of bitter cold to the area. Temperatures Saturday night will fall into the teens across the Mid-South with high temperatures only reaching the thirties again on Sunday. Then the weather pattern gets a bit interesting for the beginning of next week.
A low pressure system will move east out of Texas Monday and tap into Gulf moisture driving it north into the Mid-South. The low will come right into the area bringing the moisture with it. Forecast models are in good agreement at this time that temperatures will be in the forties during the day Monday. Then the forecast models begin to deviate.
The European model indicate temperatures falling to the freezing mark Monday night with precipitation still widespread across the area. The GFS or American model shows temperatures holding in the mid-thirties overnight with precipitation remaining through the overnight hours. Right now our thinking is for nothing more than a cold rain, however, should temperatures fall to 32 or below we could be dealing with freezing rain. Right now it's nothing to panic about but it is a situation that we will be watching closely over the coming days. This is just another reminder that winter isn't over yet.
Spring begins March 20.