Winter weather update: What you need to know - WMC Action News 5 - Memphis, Tennessee

Winter weather update: What you need to know

Forecast model Monday 3 a.m. Forecast model Monday 3 a.m.

Winter weather potential

Time frame

Sunday night, 6 p.m. through Monday morning at 8 a.m.

Main threat

Small band of sleet and snow. Could cause some road or travel issues.

How much?

We will likely see a broad range of a dusting to maybe two or three inches in a few spots. So, we are not issuing an official forecast for totals yet, because it's still too far out.

Remember that snowfall usually is not widespread, so some areas may not see anything while others could have the ground covered.

Where?

The snow threat includes all of the Mid-South, but we won't be able to nail down which areas could see the most or the least until later in the weekend. Don't be surprised if your town or community doesn't see much.

Forecast thoughts

Some models are still showing up to five inches Sunday night north toward Dyersburg with an inch or so around Memphis, while others show an inch or less in most locations. Our RPM forecast model is showing a mix of sleet and/or snow in Memphis with all snow north of Memphis toward Dyersburg. This will likely change between now and Sunday night, so stay tuned.

Things to remember about a winter forecast

1) Forecasting winter weather in the Mid-South is a lot like coaching a team sport. All the players have to be present and ready to work together in order to reach the end goal. If one player or variable is missing or not in the right spot, it changes everything.

2) Forecasting snow amounts for a specific town or city is almost impossible. Focus on the general range instead and know you could be on either end.

3) The Mid-South is a large area. Some of you may not see much at all.

4) Most of our information is geared to help prepare you for the worst case scenario. Don't cancel plans three days ahead, but have alternate plans just to be safe.

5) The forecast will likely change and our best shot at forecasting snow amounts is within 24 hours of the event.

6) Last but not least…go easy on the meteorologist :) Winter weather is really tough to forecast.

Spencer Denton
Noon and 4  p.m. meteorologist
Twitter: @sdentonwx
WMC Action News 5 Storm Tracking Team

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