MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - I don't know about you, but I'm ready for winter to be over now. It seems as if the entire winter season has been packed into the last ten days and it's may not be over yet.
The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued an early Winter Storm Watch beginning Wednesday at 6 a.m. as another potential winter storm once again moves out of Texas and make a beeline through the south.
Forecast model runs yesterday and today were indicating the storm would impact central and southern Arkansas, much of Mississippi, the extreme southern areas of west Tennessee, including Memphis, and much of Alabama. The models indicated the storm would be similar in path and nature to the last couple of systems bringing the threat for snow, sleet, and freezing rain to the southern half of the WMC Action News 5 coverage area.
As I shook off the cobwebs Monday morning after a long weekend of tracking what seemed like a steady stream of non-ending winter weather, I took a look at the morning forecast model runs. I was a bit hopefully as the latest runs were showing the system moving slightly farther south which would be good news for Memphis and areas along and north of I-40 but still impacting a good portion of southern Arkansas, much of Mississippi, and Alabama.
However, I didn't have much time to celebrate this somewhat promising new data because I then focused on another area of snow, sleet, and freezing rain moving through central Arkansas and headed toward the Mid-South arriving by early afternoon. So, I hustled into action and made my way to the office to track it. Fortunately, dry air from the north filtering in at the surface won this battle and rapidly squashed that system.
Now back to what's coming next. I have several forecast models that I look at to help me determine the forecast for the area. As I began going over the data again for Wednesday, I noticed two models showed nothing coming into our viewing area whereas three models continued to show our southern counties getting clipped. Then the evening forecast model data began streaming in.
This time two models continued to show nothing for us and a third model is now trending in that direction. I tell you all of that to tell you this, there is a chance for winter weather Wednesday but right now I think the chance is slim.
I will continue to monitor this developing system and keep you updated here on our website, on Facebook and on Twitter. Be sure to follow me @RonChilders for more weather updates and information.
Ron Childers, Managing Meteorologist
WMC Action News 5 Storm Tracking Team