From cold and icy to soggy and warmer - WMC Action News 5 - Memphis, Tennessee

From cold and icy to soggy and warmer

GFS Forecast Model estimated rainfall from 6AM Thursday through 11PM Friday GFS Forecast Model estimated rainfall from 6AM Thursday through 11PM Friday

We've seen a big shift in the weather pattern across the Mid-South and much of the nation as far as temperatures are concerned, but moisture flowing from the Gulf of Mexico continues. 

The threat for more winter weather is no longer an issue as temperatures have finally climbed well above freezing. Our next concern is the potential for flooding in the area. 

The ground is saturated from ice and snow over the last few weeks and now rain is adding to the problem. Since Sunday, Memphis has received just over an inch and a half of rain and there's more to come. We'll enjoy a brief break from the activity before our next round moves in Thursday and Friday.  

This next round could produce and additional one to three inches of rain for much of the area. Since the ground is already saturated most of what is to come will runoff. This could lead to flooding especially in flood prone areas. Small streams and creeks will have a difficult time handling the runoff and if rainfall exceeds expectations this could lead to bigger problems. 

A low pressure system will move out of the lower Mississippi River Valley late Wednesday ushering in an abundance of Gulf moisture to the Mid-South. Rain cells training one after another have the potential to produce excessive rainfall in locations along the path. The low will also have a warm front extending east. Along this front, thunderstorms may develop which in turn would produce even heavier rainfall amounts.  

The most significant rain is likely late Thursday into early Friday. No widespread severe weather is expected but isolated thunderstorms are a possibility. Temperatures will reach the mid sixties Thursday and again Friday. The entire system will exit the area by late Friday leaving behind a much drier pattern for the weekend and the beginning of next week. 

Despite this rainy week we're on track to enjoy one of the best weekends we've had in quite some time as sunshine returns and afternoon highs reach the mid sixties.  

Keep the umbrella close at hand this week and be sure to download the WMC Action News 5 Storm Tracker app.  You'll be able to track the rain from your smart phone or iPad. 

Ron Childers, Managing Meteorologist

WMC Action News 5 weather team

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