Mainly a rain event Valentine's Day across the Mid-South

Mainly a rain event Valentine's Day across the Mid-South

MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - A quick blast of cold air moves in for the weekend and many areas will be in the 30s for Saturday with 20s early Sunday morning. As the cold air slowly retreats, our next storm system arrives Sunday afternoon into Sunday night bringing a cold rain to most of the Mid-South.

Summary of what to expect

-Small window for a mix of freezing rain or sleet, mainly north of Memphis from Covington to Dyersburg to Union City.

-Timing for rain or wintry mix north: Sunday 12 PM – 10 PM

-The forecast models still differ on the timing and type of precipitation on Sunday.

-I think most areas will see a cold rain with a little sleet or freezing rain at the beginning for those north of I-40 in west Tennessee into extreme                   northeast Arkansas.

-I don't expect many travel issues. If we did have some, it would be around Dyersburg and Union City and wouldn't last too long.

Here's a look at some of the data

The GFS model shows most areas with a cold rain and just a brief window for frozen precipitation in extreme northwest Tennessee. This solution would mean even Dyersburg doesn't see much.

The NAM forecast model shows the moisture arriving as early as noon on Sunday with a wintry mix from Memphis along and north of I-40. If this solution is correct, it would only last a few hours until temperatures rise above freezing. I'm not buying this model and I'll show you why.

Below is a forecast sounding in Memphis for Sunday evening. It shows temperatures above 32 degrees or 0 degrees celsius if you are going by the horizontal temperature line at the bottom of the graph. The red line is the actual temperatures as you go higher up in the atmosphere and the green line is the dewpoint. If this correct, we won't see any frozen stuff in Memphis...just a cold rain. I think this is a good bet.

Brittney Bryant will be watching this system this weekend, so check back for updates and tune into WMC Action News 5 for updates on the timing of the rain and wintry mix.

Have a great weekend and Happy Valentine's Day!

Spencer Denton
WMC Action News 5 Meteorologist
First Alert Storm Tracking Team
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