Potential flood threat for some in the Mid-South next week

Potential flood threat for some in the Mid-South next week

MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - SOAKING RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK: The week will start of breezy, mild and dry, but rain will move in by mid-week. Winds will pick up out of the south as a large area of low pressure sets up over northern Mexico into Texas Tuesday.

A strong southerly flow will bring lots of moisture into the Mid-South, especially Arkansas. Rain will be heavy at times over much of the Mid-South starting Wednesday through the end of the week. Areas in eastern Arkansas will have to watch this very carefully, as flash flooding could potentially be a big issue. Some of the latest model data points to several inches of rain over central and maybe eastern Arkansas.

Here is a look at some of the extended forecast rain totals.

The GFS model above shows a band of five to nine inches of rain through central and western Arkansas into Missouri. If this solution is correct, rainfall totals would average one to three inches over west Tennessee and north Mississippi.

The European long range model shows totals exceeding 10 inches over central Arkansas with three to four inches from Dyersburg to Memphis to Clarkdale.

For now, most of the data has the highest rain totals and flood potential west of the Mississippi River over central and eastern Arkansas. This is still a long ways out and the timing and amounts will likely change some over the next few days.

We will have a better idea on what areas may see flooding rains by late weekend into Monday. Brittney Bryant will have an update on the heavy rain potential throughout the weekend on WMC Action News 5.

Spencer Denton
WMC Action News 5 Meteorologist
First Alert Storm Tracking Team
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