Fall is almost here but the Autumn air is lagging behind - WMC Action News 5 - Memphis, Tennessee

Fall is almost here but the Autumn air is lagging behind

Fall officially arrives at 9:21 a.m. today, but don’t expect much in the way of fall-like weather heading through the weekend. Highs will range from 90-93 degrees through at least Sunday if not into early next week. But our first fall cold front will move into the area next week and should drop temperatures some. How cool will that air be and when will it arrive? Those are the two big questions. Here are my thoughts based on the latest forecast model data.

The two major global forecast models (American GFS and European) are not on the same page. The Euro has been more reliable this far out and usually the GFS takes a few days to catch on to the right pattern. The GFS brings the front in late Sunday into early Monday with a line of showers and storms followed by a significant cool down on Tuesday morning. Check out forecast morning lows from the GFS below. It has us in the 50s with some 40s over northeast Mississippi. I think this may be too aggressive with the cool air and too quick with the timing.

Now check out the Euro below. It shows most of us in the 70s on Tuesday morning with the cold front still to our west. That would mean showers or storms would hold off until late Tuesday.

The Euro finally brings some drop in temperatures by Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, but it’s not near as cool. Highs would be in the 70s to low 80s with lows generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. The graphic below only shows mid 70s at noon on Wednesday. 

For now, I’m leaning toward this scenario. But stay tuned…we will have a better idea about the pattern change and potential cool down by the weekend.

Spencer Denton
WMC Action News 5 Morning Meteorologist
First Alert Storm Tracking Team
Facebook: Meteorologist Spencer Denton
Twitter: @sdentonwx

Copyright 2015 WMC Action News 5. All rights reserved.

Powered by Frankly