Winter Weather: How cold will it be? - WMC Action News 5 - Memphis, Tennessee

Winter Weather: How cold will it be?

Source: Lopez family Source: Lopez family

It’s been abnormally warm the past few months with July, August, and September being some of the hottest on record. October is also trending about 5 degrees above average and it will likely be one of the top 5 warmest October’s in the Mid-South. Unfortunately for you cool weather aficionados, this warm trend is expected to continue through winter.

WINTER TEMPERATURES: The Climate Prediction Center has outlined the Mid-South as an area with above average temperatures for November through January. Our normal highs are in the upper 60s to upper 50s in November. Our highs typically stay in the upper 40s to mid 50s in December and January. Therefore, high temperatures will probably run about 5-10 degrees above average the next few months. Overnight lows will also be slightly warmer and we likely won't have many days below freezing until the end of December/early January. There will likely still be a few really cold days this winter, but temperatures will stay above average overall. 

WINTER PRECIPITATION: This warm temperature outlook goes hand in hand with the precipitation forecast for the next three months. Without frequent cold fronts, temperatures will stay warm and rain chances will be low. Precipitation is expected to be below average this winter, which is bad news for already drought-stricken Mississippi and Tennessee. 

THE BOTTOM LINE:  Even though we could be warmer and drier, we are expecting to still get 1 or 2 winter weather events. Due to the extended amount of warm days, it may be difficult to get accumulation of snow. Typically, sleet and freezing rain are a bigger concern when this type of pattern is in place. If we do get a strong cold front, its interaction with warm air could increase storm intensity. 

**Again, this is only a prediction and does not mean that we won’t still have brutally cold days or times of heavy winter precipitation. However, most of our winter will likely follow a warmer and drier than normal pattern. The First Alert Weather Team will be closely monitoring any severe and winter weather storms over the coming months. Follow Chief Meteorologist Ron Childers, Andrew Kozak, Spencer Denton and Brittney Bryant for all of the latest weather information. 

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