MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - It's a tricky forecast for New Year's Eve and something that the First Alert Weather team will be watching closely over the next few days. So why is it so difficult?
Our two main weather models, European and the GFS, are forecasting very different weather set-ups. The European model keeps us dry and cold, while the GFS shows snow for much of the southeast. This forecast will be highly dependent on a system in the Gulf of Mexico. If this system moves a little farther north, moisture could interact with cold air and we could get snow on New Year's Eve. However, the GFS tends to be more bullish with winter weather and has shown snow chances almost every week. Obviously, this has not verified because we still have not had any measurable snow in the Mid-South. This set-up is not completely out of the question, but we are still apprehensive to believe this because of past performance.
The European model typically does a better job with forecasts 3 or more days out, which is why we are leaning towards this drier outcome. It's still too soon to completely rule out snow, so we are currently forecasting a 20% chance of snow showers. We should have a solid grasp on this by Friday when we can see how this system in the Gulf is progressing.
We are certain of one thing though--- it will be extremely cold on New Year's Eve. Highs will be around 30 degrees and low temperatures will drop into the teens after midnight.