FIRST ALERT: Rain and storms expected Sunday night into Monday morning

FIRST ALERT: Rain and storms expected Sunday night into Monday morning

MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - Gone is the cold temperatures of last week and back is the warmer weather helping us thaw out across the Mid-South. What is causing this big warm-up? Let's talk about the set-up.

High pressure has settled across the southeast United States, clock wise flow around the high pressure have caused south winds to flow over the warmer Gulf of Mexico waters and move up the southeast into Memphis and the Mid-South. The strong southwest flow is bringing not only the warmer weather but also moving in more moisture into the region, why our clouds are thickening up across the region.

The south winds around 10 to 15 mph overnight Saturday will help temperatures stay mild in the 40s and 50s region wide with cloudy skies. The cloudy skies will stick around for Sunday and so will the strong south winds and warmer temperatures. Highs on Sunday will warm into the middle to lower 60s.

Our cold front that will bring the rain will trek across the plains, and then move closer to the Mid-South. This cold front will interact with the warm, moist air ahead of the front and cause showers and storms to build along the line. A stronger storm or two looks possible in western Arkansas during the day Sunday, but no severe weather is expected with this line as it pushes east ward into the region. At most we will deal with gusty winds in the Mid-South as the line moves into the Mid-South.

Rain looks to move in late in the day Sunday into early morning hours on Monday. Right now, forecast models indicate the line of the rain and storms will push into eastern Arkansas between 2 to 4 a.m. The storms will push across the Mississippi River around 4 to 5 a.m. and then into western Tennessee and north Mississippi between 5 to 9 a.m. The whole system will clear the region by noon with a gradual clearing of the clouds behind the system.

Amounts with this quick moving system look to be light, between 0.5" to 1" of rain. We could see some locally higher amounts in any downpour we see push across the region.

We will see temperatures fall behind the cold front with sunshine returning as high pressure settles back into the region. Afternoon highs Tuesday through the end of the week will stay seasonal in the 50s with overnight lows sticking around the 30s and 40s.

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