MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - All week long forecast models have been in agreement for rain this weekend in the Mid-South.
As the work week comes to a close those models are still forecasting rain. Fortunately, it will not be a washout for the weekend.
After a record-setting month of rain in February, Memphis is just over a tenth of an inch above average for the first eight days of March and we are more than nine inches above average for the year.
With the Mississippi River expected to crest at more than five feet above flood stage Friday, it's safe to say that we need a break from the soggy start to 2018. But more rain is on the way and if the current data is correct many areas could receive one to two inches of additional rainfall.
A strong southerly flow returns to the area Friday allowing Gulf moisture to stream into the middle Mississippi River Valley. A low-pressure system will move out of the Southern Rockies during the day and strengthen as it moves into Eastern Texas. This will enhance the flow of Gulf moisture and give it the lift it needs to produce rain by early Saturday morning.
The low will move across the middle and lower Mississippi River Valley Saturday afternoon and evening bringing the greatest surge of moisture right into the Mid-South. This will produce periods of heavy rain and possibly a few thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Current forecast models are in agreement for one to two inches of rain for most areas including Memphis. Some parts of the Mid-South could receive two and a half inches or more of rain.
The severe weather threat is very low with this system although, there will likely be some loud rumbles of thunder as the low pressure moves through Saturday night.
Rain will likely continue into early Sunday morning and end around midday. A few lingering showers are possible Sunday afternoon but the for most areas it will just be cloudy and cooler.
A cool dry pattern will be in place for much of next week as the upper-level flow shifts north keeping temperatures below average and allowing a drier air mass to settle in for a few days.
Keep the First Alert Weather app handy this weekend so you can track the rain from your smartphone or iPad and of course, you can always count on the First Alert Weather Team to keep you updated on TV, the web, and the app.