Rainfall amounts will vary Sunday & here's why

Rainfall amounts will vary Sunday & here's why

MEMPHIS, TN (WMC) - A low-pressure system will move in from the west late Saturday night and through the day Sunday.

This system will bring rain to the Mid-South for much of the day Sunday and into Sunday night.  Current forecast models are varying greatly on rainfall amounts for specific areas, although the general consensus is for one to two inches for much of the region with higher amounts possible.

The reason for the varying amounts is due to the exact track of the low-pressure system and each forecast model's track.

Placement of that low air around a low-pressure system travels counterclockwise, drawing air and moisture up into the atmosphere.where it then condenses to form clouds and oftentimes rain.

The amount of moisture within a low-pressure system varies from the center of circulation to the outer periphery of the system and quite often the least amount of moisture is in the exact center of the low.

As a rain-producing low-pressure system moves through an area, the heaviest precipitation is often found along the outer southern and eastern bands of the low with less rain near the center and along the back or western side of the low.

So, when a low-pressure system moves directly over an area, as is expected with the system Sunday, the amount of rain from one area to another can vary greatly depending on the track and speed of the system.

We are fairly certain that Sunday's low-pressure system will track right over the Mid-South but there is still some uncertainty about the exact track of the center of the low itself.

A mere 20 to 30 miles north or south can mean a significant difference in the amount of rain that one area gets compared to another just a few miles away.

But know this, it will rain Sunday and it will likely begin after midnight Saturday night and then continue through the day Sunday before finally exiting the area early Monday morning.  Everyone in the Mid-South can expect rain during that time period.

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