The Tropics, where we are so far and future possibilities

Before hurricane season started, on June 1st we had already had an early season storm. Sub-tropical storm Alberto formed on May 25th and made landfall in Florida before moving west. Fast forward to this past week and the tropics got hot pretty quickly. Next thing you know, we had four named storms, Florence, Isaac, Helene and Gordon. This is the first time since 2008 where there were four named storms active at the same time. Thankfully all of them didn’t affect land but of course a few did.

We all know Florence wreaked havoc on the coastal Carolina’s, while Isaac affected portions of the Bahama Island Chain before weakening. Early in the season, at the end of May Alberto made landfall as a sub-tropical storm along the Gulf coast bringing us to a total of four named storms to strike the US or Caribbean.

Let’s check out how the season is going so far in comparison with the predictions from The National Hurricane Center. The NHC predicted ten to sixteen named storms of which five to nine of the storms are expected to become hurricanes and one to four of them being major, meaning category three or greater.

Here is how we stack up so far...The season started on June 1 and we’ve had ten named storms. Florence reached major category 4 strength, which goes down as one major this season. One to four major is predicted by the NHC. Ten to sixteen named storms is predicted and we’ve had 10 named storms already this season. So far the NHC’s predictions are on track but lets hope that we don’t end up at the higher range of their predictions.

Right now the tropics are quieting down but people on the east coast are still dealing with whats left of Florence. This storm just won’t quit as the heavy rain continues to fall in parts of the northeast. The remnants of Florence was also the culprit of several tornadoes that spawned in central Virginia. By Mid-week whats left of Florence should be moving north and east back out to sea and diminish.

Tropical storm Joyce is barely hanging on. At this point it is expected to meander in the Atlantic Ocean before weakening. It is no threat to land right now.

Going forward check out where the best probabilities of where storm tracks will be by month. As we press on through September, the most likely probabilities of where storms will track stays in the Atlantic mostly off shore tracks and along the Gulf of Mexico will stay in the most likely category.

Here is a look at storm track probabilities for October. Notice the shift more eastward along the east coast.

By November the storm track probabilities are mostly confined to Cuba and off-shore.

Hopefully there won’t be another named storm. The last named storm is Joyce. Take a look at the remaining names.

Hurricane season goes through November 30th so we are halfway to the finish, I am hoping that the second half is way more calmer than the first.


Sagay Galindo


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