Breakdown: Why high risk days rarely occur in the Mid-South

Why high risk days rarely occur in the Mid-South

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - The high risk of severe weather category is so rare. In the U.S. we don’t see it very often and it is even more rare here in the Mid-South. The last one issued was May 20, 2019 across the southern Plains and before that it hadn’t been issued since 2017.

When we compare the Mid-West,Plains, places south like Louisiana on over toward Alabama and points east, the Mid-South tends to be the lowest when it comes to being in that high risk category. So why is that?

Areas surrounding us tend to zap a lot of the energy and once the system arrives in the Mid-South that is usually not a lot to work with. Timing is also a good reason for the lack of dynamics. Often times these systems are pushing through late at night or early morning. Pre-frontal rain has been the culprit for the lack of energy too.

Although we may not have had any high risk categories as of late, let’s take a look at some events in the past. Some of the most recent high risk that we have had in the Mid-South were April 24 and 30, 2010; May 1, 2010; and May 25, 2011.

The picture below was the most recent high risk across the Mid-South May 25, 2011.

One of the earliest high risk threats in the Mid-South was May 15, 1999. Check out the image below.

Some high risk forecasts in between April 16, 1998.

January 21-23, 1999.

The height of the season is from April to May so we are coming to the end. We can still get severe weather throughout the summer and fall but we are coming to the end of the height of the season.

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