Tracking the Tropics: Potential impact on the Mid-South

Tracking the Tropics: Potential impact on the Mid-South

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - All eyes are on the Gulf as a rare system will continue to strengthen. The uniqueness of this system comes from its origin.

It originated over land and will gain tropical characteristics as it churns over warm and steamy waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

It has been taking a beating from the upper level winds but in the next 24 to 48 hours the upper level wind flow will settle and become more favorable for strengthening. By Thursday this low pressure could become a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Barry.

By Friday it could began to move to the west-northwest but movement will depend on an area of high pressure. As this ridge of high pressure breaks down, that will determine where it goes. Models are consistent with it making landfall along coastal Louisiana. After landfall, the models split but more are favoring a westward track.

Check out the spaghetti plot of where the tropical models predict its path.

So what does that mean for the Mid-South? Track will really matter, but right now we will likely tap into some of that moisture, which may bring some higher rain chances starting this weekend. No matter which way it goes, rainfall totals are not expected to be substantial for us but we will monitor for any changes.

The GFS models gives it more of an eastward track leaving western sections dry.

Meanwhile, the European model paints a much wetter picture based the recent update.

This storm is still developing and several days out from making landfall. There are several questions that we will be investigating like how long it will stay over the Gulf, which would affect how strong it gets, and when the ridge began to break down will it move west or east after moving onshore.

Bottom line we could see at the very least a few showers from it this weekend and early next week, or heavy downpours and higher rain totals.

Stay with the WMC Action News 5 First Alert Weather Team for the latest updates.

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