MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - A strong low-pressure system will push an intense line of rain and storms Saturday morning. Damaging wind is the main risk with this system.
The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma continues to increase the threat for strong to severe storms across the Deep South today and into tonight, this upgrade includes the Mid-South.
Parts of the Mid-South including all of eastern Arkansas, the Delta of Mississippi and parts of west Tennessee, including Shelby County and the city of Memphis, are now in a moderate risk for severe storms. That’s a higher end threat with a 4 out of 5 (Moderate-Red) for severe storms with high wind, hail and even isolated tornadoes in the region.
Places such as Blytheville, Dyersburg, Somerville and Oxford are under an Enhanced Risk for strong to severe storms. That is a medium threat with a 3 out of 5 (Enhanced-Orange).
The remainder of the Mid-South, closer to the Tennessee River Valley, are under a lower end threat for severe storms. With a Slight and Marginal risk. That threat is a 1 (Marginal-Green) and 2 (Slight-Yellow) out of 5 on the scale.
Looking at the current data, heavy rain and damaging winds will be the highest threat with this system while flooding is a lower threat. The tornado threat is now a medium to low threat. There will be some strong turning winds aloft, so a tornado or two can’t be ruled out, mainly along the line.
First Alert Futurecast currently shows the main line of heavy rain and storms approaching the Mississippi River from the west early Saturday morning. We will see very windy conditions along and ahead of this line. A quick spin up tornado can’t be ruled out as well, but again that threat is low. The main time frame is 4-10 AM Saturday morning, with Eastern Arkansas seeing the storms first, as the push east.
On average, expect 1-3 inches of rain through Saturday afternoon.
Due to the wind expected and the heavy rain, we could also see moderate outages on Friday night into Saturday morning. We will track that potential closely.
Once this system pushes out of the region midday on Saturday, we are looking at more tranquil weather for Sunday, so the whole weekend will not be a washout.
Keep it with the WMC Action News 5 First Alert Weather Team for the latest on the Mid-South forecast.