Expert weighs in on best and worst case scenarios for COVID-19 in Memphis, Shelby County

Expert weighs in on best and worst case scenarios for COVID-19 in Memphis, Shelby County

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - As COVID-19 numbers rise in Memphis and Shelby County, many are asking the best and worst case scenarios for the disease in our area.

“If we don’t take necessary interventions like social distancing interventions, we’re going to see an explosion of cases in our community like we’ve seen in Washington State and New York,” said Dr. Manoj Jain, infectious disease consultant.

Dr. Manoj Jain is an infectious disease consultant and advisor to Mayor Jim Strickland regarding COVID-19 research. He created a presentation to break down the worst and best case scenarios of COVID-19 in Memphis and Shelby County based on flu statistics in our area.

Dr. Jain says about 50 people die from the flu in the greater Memphis area every year.

“In the best case scenario, there’ll be less than 250 people, maybe 50 or 100. But if we don’t take the necessary precautions it could get to maybe 5-10 times as many,” said Dr. Jain.

His presentation also highlights important information like wearing masks if you over 60 and have a compromised immune system, as well as the importance of washing your hands and not touching your face.

“I believe we are on the right track. I think the mayors have done what’s necessary, the governor has also done what’s necessary to begin slowing the spread of the virus,” said Dr. Jain.

He says COVID-19 is more infectious than the flu and has a higher mortality rate, and if we want to see the best case scenario in our area, we have to practice social distancing.

“If we can stay away from each other, we can stop the virus," said Dr. Jain.

Dr. Jain says he’ll continue to work tirelessly to make sure the everyone is informed and up to date as things change.

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