MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - The First Alert Weather Team is tracking a cold front that could bring a line of rain and strong to severe storms into the Mid-South late Tuesday night into the early morning hours on Wednesday.
SET UP: A cold front will slide into the Mid-South from the west. Temperatures and moisture ahead of the cold front will increase causing our air mass to become unstable. As the cold front collides with warmer unstable air, this could produce a line of rain and storms. Some storms will have the potential to reach severe limits.
The areas shaded in yellow, mainly along and west of the Mississippi river, will have a slightly better chance of severe storms.
SEVERE RISK: The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Eastern Arkansas and a small sliver of North Mississippi under a Slight (2 out of 5) risk for a few severe storms.
The areas shaded in green, which includes Memphis and Olive Branch and includes most of Shelby County & DeSoto County in North Mississippi, are under a Marginal (1 out 5) risk for a strong storms. The green or marginal risk is the lowest of the severe risk on the scale.
The bottomline is that the entire Mid-South is under a severe weather risk so we all have to monitor the weather closely on Tuesday. We all know that this that time of year where storms can intensify rapidly.
THREATS: Heavy rain is the primary threat with this system but damaging wind and hail will also be possible along the leading edge of storms. The threat of tornadoes are low, but can’t be ruled out especially this time of year.
TIMING: Rain and storms could began to move into eastern Arkansas after 11 PM.
The latest timing shows the heavy rain and most likely storms continuing to move through at 1 AM. This is the timeframe and area where storms could be the most intense, from 11PM -2AM.
As the line advances east of the Mississippi River and into the metro, it is expected to weaken some. The latest timing brings it into the metro around 1 am to 3 am.
The main line will exit in the early morning hours on Saturday and we look to keep with a few lingering showers, and clouds, through midday tomorrow.
The line will continue to break up and will be much weaker by 5 a.m.
The bulk of the rain will exit before noon for most but there could be a leftover shower or two through Wednesday afternoon.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK: The rest of the week will feature drier conditions and a warm up by the end of the week.
ACTION: With the potential for severe weather, make sure you have the WMC Action News 5 First Alert weather. It will keep you abreast with all pertinent weather information plus keep you up to date with watches and warnings.
Stay with the WMC Action News 5 First Alert Weather Team for the latest timing and updates.