MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now active for Poinsett and Mississippi Counties in Eastern Arkansas, along with Dyer, Lauderdale, Crockett, Tipton and Haywood Counties in West Tennessee until 6 p.m. tonight.
SET UP: A stationary front and low pressure system is currently just northwest of the Mid-South. That will slowly push southwest across the region through the day today and into the start of the week ahead. Pulses of energy will ride along that front, giving locations north of I-40 in the Mid-South the potential for a stronger storm or two from Sunday through Tuesday.
SEVERE RISK SUNDAY: The Storm Prediction Center has now placed a Enhanced (3 out of 5) risk for strong storms for Dyer County and into Southern Missouri, a Slight (2 out of 5) Risk for stronger storms, the risk area shaded in yellow include parts of Northeast Arkansas and Northwest Tennessee. The remainder of the areas north of I-40 shaded in green are under a Marginal (1 out of 5) risk for a stronger storm or two.
SEVERE RISK MONDAY: For Monday the Slight (2 out of 5) risk area is moved to more of Northeastern Arkansas, the Bootheel of Missouri and a small area in Northwest Tennessee all indicated by a shading in yellow. The Marginal (1 out 5) Risk is now for a larger area, the region shaded in green includes Memphis, Shelby County and the metro counties.
THREATS: The primary threat with any storm we see over the next few days will be gusty winds the could take down trees and powerlines, these winds will be mainly along the leading edge of any storm system that pushes in the areas indicated above.
There is a secondary threat for hail, which could potentially be large in some storms. We also could see a few storms with heavy rain, but widespread flooding is not looking like a major issue with this system.
TIMING SUNDAY: This afternoon we will start to see showers and storms form north of the Mid-South in parts of Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas. A few storms could enter the region in the early afternoon hours but the primary line looks to move into the region later.
By 8 pm, we will see showers and storms for Northeast Arkansas into Northwest Tennessee, some storms could be on the stronger side.
By 10 p.m. tonight, we will continue to see spotty showers and a few storms, mainly for areas along and north of I-40, and spotty showers will be possible overnight into Monday morning.
TIMING MONDAY: Much like today, the prime time to see any storms tomorrow will be in the afternoon and evening hours.
By 5 p.m. on Monday we will see a few showers and storms start to impact Eastern Arkansas into the Bootheel of Missouri.
By 8 p.m. on Monday, we will again see a pockets of showers and storms form and push across the northern counties in the WMC Action News 5 viewing area.
By 11 p.m. into the early morning hours on Tuesday, we will again see an area of showers and storms to our west that will push into the Mid-South.
ACTION: As with any threat for storms, make sure you have the WMC Action News 5 First Alert weather app handy if a storm is approaching your area. That way you can gain important watches and warnings.
This forecast will continue to evolve over the course of the day today into the start of the week ahead, that is why it is important to keep check with the WMC Action News 5 First Alert weather team for the potential for any changes to the First Alert forecast.