MEMPHIS, Tenn. (WMC) - Estimates from the Memphis-Shelby County COVID-19 Task Force show a major potential spike in active cases over the next month.
David Sweat, chief of epidemiology, says they use the current reproductive rate and active case totals to calculate estimated cases over the next 10, 20 and 30 days.
Data as of last Friday showed an estimated 6,168 active cases within 30 days based on Shelby County’s current reproductive rate of 1.12.
Tuesday’s report from the health department show 1,562 active cases, a slight decrease from 1,714 last Friday.
Sweat said they recalculate estimates for the next month on a weekly basis.
The health department reported 113 new cases Wednesday -- the 22nd day of April with more than 100 new daily cases.
The health department also reported four more deaths.
Since the start of the pandemic, Shelby County has had 95,087 cases and 1,617 deaths related to COVID-19.
The most recent weekly test positivity rate is 6.9 percent. That number has seen increases nearly every week since the first of March.
Now more than 308,000 people in Shelby County have received the COVID-19 vaccine and 207,142 are considered fully vaccinated.